US Retail Sales Growth

Key takeaways

• US retail sales excluding food services changed 6.2% year over year in September 2026, against 3.5% a year earlier and 4.1% on average over the last twelve months.
• This is the headline monthly read on US consumer goods demand, published by the Census Bureau about two weeks after month end.
• Over the period shown, the yearly rate ranged from -2.3% in January 2024 to 15.9% in February 2022.
• Nominal growth includes price increases, so in high inflation periods real unit demand is weaker than this line suggests.
• Reading your own revenue growth against this benchmark separates market tailwind from marketing performance.

The data

What this means for e-commerce and DTC brands

Every revenue target implicitly assumes a demand backdrop, and this series is that backdrop measured. If retail growth is running at five percent and your brand grew eight, you beat the market. If the market grew five and you grew two, the gap is a performance question worth digging into before budgets get cut. It is also the cleanest way to keep goal setting honest, because a plan that requires you to triple market growth needs marketing to do real work, and a plan set during a demand boom needs a haircut when the boom fades.

What this statistic does not tell you

This covers total US retail excluding food services, not your category and not online sales alone. It is nominal, so inflation inflates the growth rate without any extra units sold. It is also a US figure, and demand in European markets can run on a different cycle. The advance estimate is revised twice, so treat the newest one or two points as provisional.

Frequently asked questions